POLLS, FOCUS GROUP, and MY SCORE CARD: US First Presidential Debate

Polls and focus group are two different research methods of getting public opinions. Most polls are taken through telephone or online, while focus group are based on a small discussion group on a series of topics introduced by a discussion leader, which of course is a voter himself. Results in both polls and focus groups has the tendency to be biased based on how participants are selected. Basically, it should be randomized; however, if the selection doesn't consider the political leanings of the participants, results of both methods would be prejudicial against another. That is how I see why all the results of the polls and focus groups on last night's US Presidential Debate favored the score to Sen. Obama, while many expert political critics saw the debate differently. (see BBC Online News, "McCain and Obama Spar in First Debate", Sept. 17.) We also must remember that most TV networks have openly shelled out their money to the Obama campaign. Such overwhelming financial support to Obama by these TV networks could have contributed to the skewed results on the polls and focus groups.

Now, allow me to give my unsolicited criticism.

1) Economic & Financial Rescue - Although both Republican candidate John McCain and Democratic candidate Barack Obama positively addressed this issues on strict regulations and accountability, McCain has specifically satisfied me on how he would carry out his plans, particularly on Business Tax Cut. He got in-depth reasoning, contrasting Ireland's 11% business tax rate against US 35%. I see his point loud and clear. In economics, when investors are hit with a high tax rate, they'd bring their busines elsewhere to make more profit. That is why many US investors are bringing their businesses overseas were the business tax rate, the wage rate, and the raw materials are low, putting the US workers out of jobs. Obama, on the other hand, addressed it so specifics from US infrastructure, to energy, from education to health. However, he did not really hit the target well.

2) Change and Reform - I mentioned in my previous blog that Obama, being an innovator, has been vocally preaching a radical change in the US politics and economy. However, I haven't seen that from last night's debate. Despite his strong allegation that McCain would just be adopting the current president's agenda, he did not really prove any revolutionary changes,henceforth, saw his possible changes still not so different from the status quo. Remember what anthropologist Ruth Benedict wrote in her book, Patterns of Culture (1934,1959:24), which I quoted in my past blog? "...From the point of view of an outsider the most radical innovations in any culture amount to no more than a minor revision, and it is a commonplace that prophets have been put death for the difference between Tweedledum and Tweedledee."

3) Tactic and Strategy - I don't question Sen Obama's linguistics acumen. Of course, he knows the difference between tactic and strategy. Nevertheless, when talking about international relations and conflict, he did not address them well enough to show his ability in dealing with the issues. Sen. McCain's response was so deep, even mentioning the Battle of Normandy (and explained and connected it very well to today's problems). Very well done!

I just hope that McCain would not listen to the poll and focus groups results. Rather, McCain has to take it as a challenge to give better his already very good performance in yesterday's debate. I don't want to see the repeat of the presidential elections of 1980, where Carter conceded early to Ronald Reagan, when some people in the West Coast were still at work and had not have a chance to vote. Carter's early concession was affected by the Nov. 4 survey by a major TV networks who showed that Reagan was ahead of him in a landslide vote and projected Reagan's win.

And for Sen. Obama? I would like to hear him in the next debate to be more in-depth to effectively prove his platform.

This 2008 presidential election is a close fight, my friends. Let us tighten our seat belts. Let's watch the final result in November.